A new hope

Sometimes I feel like it's all too hard and that we should just give up, party hard and brace for the end of the world. Then something good happens and I know it's going to be OK. This week I read so many good news stories I had trouble picking which one pleased me most. The Senate knocked back the second attempt to shut down the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, providing a double dissolution trigger should Tony Abbott wish to go that way (I won't be holding my breath personally). Unesco has bowed to a pressure campaign and deferred a decision on dredging in the Barrier Reef for 12 months. More banks have pulled out of financing the Abbott Point coal port, which now looks very unlikely to go ahead. Bulldozing was halted in the Leard State Forest by a people power campaign and a court challenge. Victoria has suspended CSG exploration for 12 months. Victoria and NSW have come out in support of the RET. Courts are quashing this and fining that and no bad deed can go unpunished while social media is watching. There is a light beginning to dawn. It's unmistakeable now. 

Al Gore has written a piece for Rolling Stone, The turning point: New hope for the climate, where he shares his confidence that the renewable energy juggernaut is now unstoppable and that "executives of companies selling electricity generated from the burning of carbon-based fuels (primarily from coal) are openly discussing their growing fears of a utility death spiral." Tony Abbott and crew might think they can just run amok in Canberra, but they're finding it a lot more difficult than they first imagined I suspect. The fossil fuel industry is starting to lash out left and right in desperation at what they call 'big environment' (ha ha!) stopping them from doing things and looking decidedly defensive and jittery.

It's going to be a bumpy ride for the global economy as we transition away from fossil fuels though. Bumpier for some than others. As Bill McKibben pointed out in his own Rolling Stone article a little while ago, Global Warming's Terrifying New Math, vast chunks of the global economy are based on squillions of dollars borrowed against coal, oil and gas reserves that can never be dug up and burned. Personal fortunes of people like our very own Gina Rinehart and Clive Palmer are heavily reliant upon coal that is still in ground in the Galilee Basin and seems destined to stay there. 

Circumstances are about to overtake them whether they like it or not and the irony is, it's got a lot to do with cold, hard global economics and the power of the 'market'. Coal, gas, uranium and oil stocks will be virtually worthless within a decade is my call. It just won't make economic sense to dig them up any more once economical, small and medium, storage solutions for renewables hit the market in volume, which is about 5 years away by my guess. It's already begun in the USA. Iron ore and other minerals will also quite possibly go into decline as various innovations in manufacturing, such as 3D printing, carbon fibre and nanotechnology really start to take off at scale.

Much as I might enjoy the spectacle of former mining billionaires trying to survive on 'Newstart', it's not all going to be sunshine and lollipops. The arms industry will probably continue to do as well as it always has. Although there will probably be fewer wars over oil, there may be more wars over food and water and arable land, which is a very worrying thought. Climate change is going to be bad, even if we manage to sharply curb our emissions, even if we start rapidly reforesting the planet. With a global population still growing much too fast, billions of people are going to be displaced as some areas become uninhabitable, extreme weather and rising sea levels destroy homes and drought wreaks havoc on agriculture. 

But, I have a lot of hope in the up and coming generation. I hope they won't repeat the mistakes of previous generations and will find ways to cooperate, share resources equitably and hopefully innovate their way out of some of the messes we have got ourselves into. I also predict Green politics is going to continue to surge on, and grow in strength and power when the message finally sinks in that this is our only home and we'd better start taking better care of it if we want to survive the rest of the century. 

Telling someone who cares...

So, you want to save the world? It's a quick and easy thing to do to write to a politician. Anyone can do it and it doesn't have to involve chaining yourself to anything or getting arrested if that's not your thing. Sure, they might not read any of your letters, but if they get 2000 letters, they tend to pay attention. The department and ministerial staff will read them in any case, or at least skim some of them. So, the more interesting and snappy you can make it, the more likely it will be noticed by someone. 

For example, in response to this call out to write to politicians I penned a short missive to a few of 'em on the subject of bulldozing going on in a state forest to clear land for a coal mine (sigh). 

Dear Minister

I am writing to request you to urgently stop the illegal clearing of forest  at Maules Creek. Even if you don't care about environmental considerations, which are huge,  stop for a minute and have a think about some other issues that may/should concern you.

1. Economic: the price of coal is dropping like a stone. Proposed coal projects are being abandoned every day and mining companies are going belly  up because they are decreasingly financially viable. The public 'divest'  movement is seeing more and more money taken out of coal globally. Slowing  demand in China and rising renewable energy production all over the world  will only increase the slide on the coal price and it's not ever going to  come back. Despite what industry lobbyists might tell you, that the good times are just around the corner, they aren't. Coal  is over. They just don't know it yet. So, as a government NSW will be left with a giant hole in the  ground when Whitehaven goes into receivership and you will have lost a  beautiful and irreplaceable national park in the process. Is this a responsible way for a  government to behave? Is this what we think of as 'planning'? Ask yourself how the voters will view the billion dollar bill for the cleanup.

Supporting renewable energy projects ahead of mining projects would create good, clean, Australian, high tech jobs, many of them in remote areas, and would create and  keep value in this country. We could create a hugely profitable industry that could see us exporting technology to the world, instead of increasingly unpopular and unprofitable fossil fuels.

2. Legal: Are you 110% sure that the permit process for this mine is all  completely above board? Are you confident that this mining lease will not end  up in ICAC for review? Have you double checked that every single T has been  crossed and i dotted in the planning application process? I would call a halt  until this is done if I were you. Just sayin'.

3. Media: This project has already attracted a lot of media interest because  of the ANZ­ Whitehaven hoax, which highlighted the lack of consultation and  lack of proper process. Currently hundreds of civilian protectors [sic] are  making their way to the forest to fortify the blockade and thousands of new supporters are joining on-line. You will find yourself with another situation on your hands similar to the recent Bentley action. It's a very bad look to send publicly funded riot police into an area  to attack civilians, spending tax payers money to protect the profits of a private corporation in order to destroy the last remaining forest of its type in the world. How do you justify that use of public funds when the public is trying to defend a public asset from private interests?

4. Politics: ICAC has been uncovering a tangled web of corruption, greed and  lack of proper government oversight (to say the least) in terms of its  dealings with the mining industry. Do you think it would be a good look for  your government to get embroiled in any more of this kind of thing on your  watch? The Liberal Party is deeply unpopular with the public at the moment  because of their cavalier attitude towards the people in favour of big  business. Is now the time to start a battle on yet another front with the  citizens of NSW?

Have a think about it. I know you will do the sensible thing and call a halt  to this project before it goes any further. For now, at least stop the bulldozers!

Sincerely,
Miriam Robinson